Timing the Market and the bottom of the Gravy Boat

Timing the market comes up in every conversation with a potential buyer. Some are convinced that prices will fall another 30%; they might, in some places. Others are concerned with the future of their personal economy. And though some can't articulate their specific concerns, nobody wants to "overpay" for a home. If there is no way to quantify every consideration in the decision to buy a home that means the conversation needs to be about being near the bottom of the bowl.


As any investor will know timing a market to maximize return is nearly impossible. The more factors, conditions or considerations that go into assessing the value of an investment the less likely one can hit the sweet spot. Real Estate is one of the most difficult to time. Condition of the home and surrounding neighborhood, time on market, sales prices of homes in close proximity, intensity of the owner's desire to sell, interest rates, borrower's confidence of continued employment, etc...don't forget location.  All these and more go into the determining the value of a home.


 Probably everyone in Real Estate has seen this type of graph:

I don't necessarily agree with the text, but I like the graphic. See all the happy sellers running away with their money on the right side. What we need to do is educate the buying public is that being near the bottom of the Gravy Boat is a great place to be and getting to the bottom is fairly impossible to accomplish. Maybe we say that if you are swimming in gravy you did OK.